Relatório do FMI Sobre a Economia Mundial


Brasil fica bem abaixo da média mundial e latino-americana: 3,3% contra 4,1 %.
(world economic outlook) -

09.21.2005

PARA A ECONOMIA MUNDIAL COMO UM TODO CRESCIMENTO ESPERADO É DE 4,1%, ABAIXO DOS 5,7% DE 2004 (QUE HAVIA SIDO O MAIOR DESDE 1980). MESMO ASSIM, ESSA TAXA DE EXPANSÃO PARA O MUNDO COMO UM TODO FICA ACIMA DA BRASILEIRA ( 3,3% ). DEVE-SE RESSALTAR QUE O FMI ESPERA UM CRESCIMENTO DE 7,5% NA ARGENTINA E DE 5,9% NO CHILE, BEM ACIMA DO BRASIL.

WASHINGTON (AFX) - Latin America's economies are showing general solid growth and are 'more resilient' than in the past, despite a variety of risks to the outlook, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday.

The IMF, in its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook, maintained its forecast for 4.1 pct growth this year for the overall Western Hemisphere region that includes South America, Central America, Mexico and the Caribbean.

While that pace is down somewhat from the 5.7 pct pace of 2004 -- the best since 1980 -- the IMF said many of the countries in the region are seeing more sustainable growth. The growth outlook for 2006 was pegged at 3.8 pct.

'In Latin America, growth has moderated to a more sustainable pace after a sharp rebound in 2004,' the report said. 'Strong commodity and raw material exports and -- in most large economies -- broad terms-of-trade gains continue to support the growth momentum, although manufacturing exports have weakened somewhat in tandem with the slowdown in global manufacturing.' The IMF said inflation in the region 'has generally stabilized but remains volatile, with continued heightened commodity price variability.' 'Looking forward, the expansion is projected to continue at a solid pace, with growth remaining above the 1990s average through 2005-06, underpinned by both external and domestic demand growth.'

However, the IMF said the region still faces a host of possible risks, ranging from high oil prices to increased borrowing costs and the still-high levels of public debt. 'Rising political uncertainties, as a result of both country-specific events and the crowded regional election schedule over the next year, are also a source of risk, underscoring the need for continued sound policy implementation and cautious debt management,' the report said.

'Nevertheless, prospects are that the current expansion will be more resilient than earlier ones.' Brazil, the largest economy in the region, has seen a cooling over the past few months and the IMF has marked down the 2005 growth forecast to 3.3 pct compared with 3.7 pct in its April forecast. 'Recent activity indicators point to some upside potential to the growth outlook, but higher oil prices and the possible fallout from the political uncertainties add to the downside risks,' the IMF said. Argentina, meanwhile, 'has lost some of last year's strong rebound momentum but remains robust,' it added, calling for a 2005 expansion of 7.5 pct after 9.0 pct growth last year. For 2006, the pace is seen as cooling even further to 4.2 pct. Gross domestic product in Mexico is projected at 3.0 pct this year after 4.4 pct last year, but the country should see an increase to 3.5 pct in 2006, the IMF said. The strongest growth this year in the region was expected in Venezuela, whose GDP is seen expanding at 7.8 pct in 2005 after 17.9 pct last year thanks to huge inflows of oil revenues. But Venezuelan growth is seen as falling to 4.5 pct in 2006. Chile, meanwhile, 'continues to expand at a robust pace, driven by favorable export developments and a pickup in investment,' the report said. Growth in Chile is pegged at 5.9 pct this year after 6.1 pct in 2004, and the pace will hold at 5.8 pct for 2006, the IMF said.
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